A decade following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or activists want to engage even with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he commented. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has has something to learn from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
